This is it, the Ford Championship weekend at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Their website splash screen says that the top three positions between Denny Hamlin, Jimmie Johnson and Kevin Harvick are separated by 46 points and that tickets start at $55 at Homestead, so if you live in the area and are inclined, it could be worth it to see some form of NASCAR history be made. The other series championships have already been decided so there’s only one national series that the media hoopla can be built up on and that’s the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series.
They are also advertising a meet & greet with Danica Patrick at Homestead on November 20th & 21st. But right now, that’s not what we’re focused on. I’m focused on who is going to take the championship and how are we going to handicap this event to pick the winner of the championship. But I have to be honest with you in that on initial look, I don’t think Jimmie is going to pull this off. The only way I think he can is if he unloads from the hauler race-ready. Otherwise, it will be an all-day battle!
Handicapping the Top-3
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According to The Inside Groove, Carl Edwards has the best average finishing record in the last five races at Homestead Miami. Here’s the list: (races other than 5):
- Carl Edwards
- Martin Truex Jr. (4),
- Kevin Harvick,
- Jeff Gordon,
- Greg Biffle,
- Matt Kenseth,
- Mark Martin (4),
- A.J. Allmendinger (2),
- Denny Hamlin,
- Kasey Kahne, and then
- Jimmie Johnson.
The average finishing spots for the three Sprint Cup Title contenders are:
- Harvick (7.4)
- Hamlin (10.6)
- Johnson (15.2)
If these average finishes could be used to accurately predict the outcome, then Harvick will be getting 146 points, Hamlin – 134 & Johnson would get 118 points. (Barring bonus points)
If this scenario were to be true, then after Homestead the points would look like this:
Driver, before / after Homestead
- Hamlin: 6462 / 6596
- Johnson: 6447 / 6565
- Harvick: 6416 / 6562
And nothing would change… Denny Hamlin would win the title by 31 points over Johnson and Harvick would be 34 points behind Hamlin. (Did I mention, barring bonus points?)
What If Kevin Harvick Could…
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If Denny Hamlin stays in front of Jimmie Johnson and Kevin Harvick, it’s all moot. If Hamlin stays behind the highest placed of the other two guys by within 5 positions it is also all moot. (Though Denny fans might have new ulcers by the end of the race.)
Not counting bonuses, though they may play a hug role in the end-game of the day, if Harvick or Johnson win, they have to hope Denny does not finish any better than 6th. If they win, but I don’t expect that.
The points system also changes as you go down the finishing spots. There’s a 15 point spread between 1st and 2nd, then 5-point spreads between 2nd to 6th. After that, it’s a 4-point spread between spots down to 11th and then the rest of the finishing field is separated by 3 points for each position after 11th.
Let’s keep in mind that Denny is 31 points in front of Jimmie Johnson & 34 points ahead of Kevin Harvick.
For simplicity sake, I’m not ignoring JJ, I’m just focusing on the bookends of this equation, just Hamlin and Harvick. You can inject Johnson where you would like but Jimmie needs to finish in front of Harvick to take advantage of any of the following schemes where I project Harvick winning the title. [Jimmie Johnson is only 17 points behind Denny Hamlin. That means he needs to be at least 27 points (this includes bonus pts) in front of Denny to return to the circle of champions for a consecutive fifth time!] Yes, I’m doing my math standing behind my original guess more than 10 weeks ago when I suggested that Kevin Harvick could win the 2010 NASCAR championship and yes, it was a quick work up at work on the numbers. (oops)
If lady luck doesn’t crap on anyone then; if
- Harvick wins, Denny can’t finish higher than 6th (8th with bonuses).
- Kevin finishes 2nd, Denny can’t finish higher than 10th (12th) and 10th is Denny’s average finishing location.
- Kevin 3rd, Denny 11th (13th),
- Kevin 4th, Denny 13th (15th),
- Kevin 7th, Denny 18th (20th).
In the last 5 events at Homestead, whose led laps here?
- Hamlin (91)
- Harvick (58)
- Johnson (37)
But in the last 5 races, who has had the most points after a race is finished?:
- Harvick: 753
- Hamlin: 723
- Johnson: 620
(It’s moments like this that I really hate stats.)
As much as I’d like to see Jimmie Johnson make NASCAR history, I don’t think he’s going to pull this off. Also as much as I’d like to see the future Budweiser Chevy driver win a championship, many things will have to go his way for the day and the Cup to be his for a record making fifth consecutive season.
My 2010 Sprint Cup Champ Prediction:
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I don’t have one yet though I will say this looks like it’s Hamlin’s to lose!
So keep something in mind, I’ve just gone through part of my system that has allowed me to dominate some NASCAR fantasy leagues and I’m feeling pretty good about what I’ve pointed out so far. The rest of my equation in predicting race (title) winners has also included the very weekend itself, as I monitor practice and qualifying efforts. With that said -
My prediction for the 2010 Sprint Cup Series championship is going to require that I watch the two practice sessions and qualifying. Barring parts failure, I’m going to weight my choice on how the teams look right up until the green flag. Everything here is just too close to even guess until I’ve seen their weekend stats. If anyone unloads race-ready at Homestead, the other two drivers have their work cut out for them. If they don’t, it will be all about who sets up and makes the best adjustments on race weekend and Sunday. And from past stats, that has not been Chad Knaus and Jimmie Johnson, unless they’ve been doing some serious homework this year at a track just like Homestead. I don’t rule that out. If they’re smart, every free moment they’ve had, the No. 48 team has been somewhere figuring things out. Otherwise, it’s Denny Hamlin’s title to lose.
Two great NASCAR statistics sites:
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