The Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup trophy is on. The top-12 drivers have qualified and are now facing each other in the arena of the isolated top-12 positions. No matter what else happens, no one will finish outside the 12th spot in points. But who will fulfill their NASCAR statistical expectations and who will fall prey to that vicious lady luck?
But who will end up hefting a trophy over their head after these next 10 races of ‘the chase?’ Good question. I’m going to look at the stats of the overall past performance of our top-12 and see what we have.
By wins alone, we have Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick and Jeff Gordon on top.
If we look at top-5 finishes, we have Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson, then Jeff Gordon.
Looking at top-10 finishes up until now, we have Carl Edwards, Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch and Jeff Gordon in the top-4 of this category.
If I smooth over the stats from this impromptu set of tables, I’m looking at Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson all contending for the title. In that order.
But driver ratings with various categories considered all into one big pile show an interesting set of drivers at the top:
Jimmie Johnson (110)
Jeff Gordon (108)
Tony Stewart (100)
Kurt Busch (99)
Kyle Busch (98)
But we all know that simple stats don’t go anywhere near predicting what’s going to happen. Even complicated statistic packages can’t anticipate luck and circumstances. But we can try to get as close as possible to the potential outcome!
Me, I like to look at the top-10 performance overall. This category, to me, shows a consistency of being at the finish of the last 26 races.
Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson have been in the top-10 65% of the last 26 races. Kyle Busch, 62%.
That’s an important number to me and this is who I’m looking to contend at the top.
BUT
In the last 6 races, it’s a little bit of a different story. Brad Keselowski’s broken ankle put him and his team into a fascinating mind set and he’s outscored everyone over the last 6 events. Brad has then been followd by Jeff Gordon, Kyle Busch and Jimmie Johnson.
Brad Keselowski (249)
Jeff Gordon (242)
Kyle Busch and (224)
Jimmie Johnson (216)
Ryan Newman (204)
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Despite all the stats and scores and what not, there’s one thing that can’t be calculated into all the mixes… and that’s how the No. 48 team of Jimmie Johnson’s seems to laser focus and get the job done for real in the last 10 races of the chase. Hence, being Mr. Five-Time.
So right now, your guess is as good as mine!
[Written before the Chicago race.]
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