A NASCAR Bits & Pieces opinion piece:
Classic fans of the latest NASCAR policy of letting the “Boys have at it” echoes back to the classic days when drivers policed themselves. It’s a practice I completely approve of, but when handled properly. Of course, in between the spats, we have new races each weekend to make more spats!
But all joking aside, emotions run high in any sport and this isn’t isolated to onl NASCAR .
Of late, boys having at it involves sheet metal and I mean lots of sheet metal. I’m going to try not to pull up my favorite examples of that, because if you’re a regular around these parts, you know my premise comes from how Carl dumped on Brad for an entire season, for whatever the reason.
But in the old days, having it it meant that when a driver did stupid things out on the track, other drivers would have a “conversation” with “that” driver in the garage, and more than likely, the stupid driver would not be so stupid in future events.
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Going into Texas Motor Speedway this weekend, the battle for the NASCAR 2011 championship is getting interesting. At least it looks like it is.
First up, the schedule for Texas:
NSCS
- Next Race: AAA Texas 500
- The Place: Texas Motor Speedway
- The Date: Sunday, Nov. 6
- The Time: 3 p.m. (ET)
- TV: ESPN, 2 p.m. (ET)
- Radio: PRN, Sirius XM Ch. 90
- Distance: 501 miles (334 laps)
NNS
- The Race: O’Reilly Auto Parts Challenge
- The Place: Texas Motor Speedway
- The Date: Saturday, Nov. 5
- The Time: 12:55 p.m. (ET)
- TV: ESPN2, 12 p.m. (ET)
- Radio: PRN, Sirius XM Ch. 90
- Distance: 300 miles (200 laps)
NCWTS
- The Race: WinStar World Casino 350K
- The Place: Texas Motor Speedway
- Date: Friday, Nov. 4
- The Time: 8 p.m. (ET)
- TV: SPEED, 7:30 p.m. (ET)
- Radio: MRN, Sirius XM Ch. 90
- Distance: 220.5 miles (147 laps)
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The top five drivers in the standings have curiously interesting stats. Though Matt Kenseth is 36 points behind Carl Edwards with only three races to go, all it would take is a fluke of a flat tire or even some from of karma from all the fender carnage that Edwards dished out last year and suddenly, Kenseth wouldn’t be that far back!
Looking at driver ratings, here’s how the top 6 spots shake out statistically…
| Driver |
[Driver Ratings Rank] |
| Matt Kenseth |
1st |
| Tony Stewart |
2nd |
| Jimmie Johnson |
4th |
| Carl Edwards |
5th |
| Kevin Harvick |
14th |
| Brad Keselowski |
32nd |
But those are driver ratings that also score various factors like laps led, quality passes and a few other things that to me, don’t rate. To me, looking at the average finish of these drivers and see what’s going on there….
| Driver |
Average Texas Finish |
| Matt Kenseth |
9th |
| Jimmie Johnson |
10th |
| Tony Stewart |
13th |
| Kevin Harvick |
13th |
| Carl Edwards |
16th |
| Brad Keselowski |
24th |
Depending on weather, how the car unloads, and various other unknown factors, these stats could mean absolutely nothing. The above average finishing spots are only a few points apart. Nothing huge and nothing that statistically threatens Edwards.
What I’d like to see is combining these stats with practice speeds and qualifying that that may very well be quite telling.
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With NASCAR headed to the tight confines of the classic and timeless 1-mile paperclip track called Martinsville, we have numerous factors to ponder.
First and foremost is to remember the loss of so many from the NASCAR family so many years ago. That is something we will never forget.
But Martinsville is also known for the tight racing it produces and the frustrated tempers that can explode later.
Looking at our NASCAR Sprint Cup Chase Contenders coming into this Wheel-man’s track, even if Carl Edwards has been practicing on the simulator, or if he does poorly, statistics say he won’t be threatened too much by the 2nd and 3rd place contenders, though the 4th through 7th place drivers might be able to shore up their point spread a bit, if luck is on their side.
If any of these top-5 contenders win, each story will be a unique and fantastic story in and of themselves.. with Keselowski actually in the top-5, with Kenseth lurking with top-10 finishes, as is Harvick… And then there’s Stewart… he’s capable, but is his equipment? Regardless, I believe one of them will be the man who will be known for having dethroned Jimmie Johnson.
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Below I look at each of drivers NASCAR season driver rating, and then compare and show their numbers as related to the track…
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NASCAR has done it… they’ve made enough adjustments over the last few years and they have finally unpacked the pack of cars that we have been used to seeing over the years at Talladega.
But is that good or bad? We now have tandem drafting, with its own hazards, as the back car can’t see what the front car sees, or reacts to.
And that was seemingly what happened in several incidents at the Good Sam Club 500 at Talladega. With 72 lead changes amongst 26 drivers, Carl Edwards extended his championship points lead up to 14 points today.
And as you can see, the drafting and some race incidents impacted the Championship contenders…
FINISHING CHART for the ‘Good Sam Club 500:’
| Finishing |
CAR # |
DRIVER |
|
| Pos. 1 |
33 |
Clint Bowyer |
|
| Pos. 2 |
31 |
Jeff Burton |
|
| Pos. 3 |
36 |
Dave Blaney |
|
| Pos. 4 |
2 |
Brad Keselowski |
Chase Contender |
| Pos. 5 |
83 |
Brian Vickers |
|
| Pos. 6 |
4 |
Kasey Kahne |
|
| Pos. 7 |
14 |
Tony Stewart |
Chase Contender |
| Pos. 8 |
11 |
Denny Hamlin |
Chase Contender |
| Pos. 9 |
115 |
Michael Waltrip |
|
| Pos. 10 |
56 |
Martin Truex Jr. |
|
| Pos. 11 |
99 |
Carl Edwards |
Chase Contender |
| Pos. 18 |
17 |
Matt Kenseth |
Chase Contender |
| Pos. 25 |
88 |
Dale Earnhardt Jr. |
Chase Contender |
| Pos. 26 |
48 |
Jimmie Johnson |
Chase Contender |
| Pos. 27 |
24 |
Jeff Gordon |
Chase Contender |
| Pos. 32 |
29 |
Kevin Harvick |
Chase Contender |
| Pos. 33 |
18 |
Kyle Busch |
Chase Contender |
| Pos. 36 |
22 |
Kurt Busch |
Chase Contender |
| Pos. 38 |
39 |
Ryan Newman |
Chase Contender |
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Word on the street is that Jack Roush & Ford are rallying the gang for Sunday with an all out collective set of orders for the Ford-backed NASCAR drivers at Talladega.
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Talladega is a unique beast of a track. It’s fast enough to warrant restrictor plates on the fuel system to limit speeds.
Limited speeds force cars to draft each other to be competitive. This creates packs of cars.
Packs of cars means trouble when your 3×15 in a pack.
That started rule changes being dictated out from NASCAR to try and eliminate the problems.
Every new rule or body change has brought a whole new set of problems at restrictor plate racing.
It’s never ending.
Because of the tenacious, competitive balance in restrictor plate races, it’s all about planning ahead and plotting who you hope to draft with for a successful day.
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This weekend, we have the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series and Camping World Truck Series leagues hitting up Talladega Superspeedway. Specifically, we’re looking at the Cup Series winding down and who will win the championship. I have schedules, some thoughts, then point standings and at the bottom, some Talladega-specific stats for the top-12 spots.
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NASCAR Sprint Cup Series
- Next Race: Good Sam Club 500
- The Place: Talladega Superspeedway
- The Date: Sunday, Oct. 23
- The Time: 2:00 p.m. (ET)
- TV: ESPN, 1 p.m. (ET)
- Radio: MRN, Sirius XM Ch. 90
- Distance: 500 miles (188 laps)
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NASCAR Camping World Truck Series
- The Race: Coca Cola 250 Powered by Fred’s
- The Place: Talladega Superspeedway
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 22
- The Time: 4 p.m. (ET)
- TV: SPEED, 3:30 p.m. (ET)
- Radio: MRN, Sirius XM Ch. 90
- Distance: 250.04 miles (94 laps)
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Jimmie Needs to Points Race (Play if Safe)
Coming into the superspeedway, Carl Edwards has a five-point lead over Kevin Harvick coming into Talladega, and Jimmie Johnson‘s mistake that put him into a wall at Charlotte dropped him five spots, down into 8th, and 35 points out of first. If Talladega strikes at him like it does when those big wrecks happen, we could be writing off Jimmie Johnson’s chances for the NASCAR title for 2011.
Carl Edwards Should Worry
Coming into Talladega, Edwards has the points lead, but this track does not like him. Looking at Loop Data, this is his worse track, with a driver rating of 67.8, an average finish of 20th.
But that’s how dancing with this track can be. And it can be ugly to points leaders:
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With the NASCAR‘s Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway in the books, it looked like another points blender event in The Chase, and we’re suddenly starting to see a pattern developing with the top 6 spots in The Chase for the Cup. And one of those patterns involves the last ten races and a certain blue & silver car team turning it on.
Jimmie Johnson won the Hollywood Casino 400 as he paced the field, while forty-two other cars jockeyed for positions behind the blue & silver Lowe’s Chevy No. 48 car for the entire race. And Jimmie Johnson winning moved himself 2 more spots up the points standings, putting him in third place, only 4 points out of first.
And after Kansas, there are now only nine teams within one race’s worth of points (43, not counting bonuses) behind the points leader.
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Here’s how it’s looking after Kansas:
1st: Despite straggling along all day, Carl Edwards managed a 5th place finish and that was good enough to propel him 1 spot up the standings into the points lead.
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Two races into NASCAR’s Chase for the Cup. Can Tony Stewart be called the sleeping dragon which awoke? Or Denny Hamlin, the little train that couldn’t?
One friend I know over at WOMR suggests that like the mythical Phoenix, Tony Stewart has risen from the ashes of his 2011 NASCAR season. He also thinks that Denny Hamlin is down and done in The Chase.
As far as the Kyle and Kurt, well, he says the leaves are starting to fall off the two Busch’s.
I can’t argue with Leon’s thoughts. They’re all valid, but as long as any team is within 24 points of the lead, ANYTHING can happen to swap things up. That for me, is the magic cut off point.
In fact, after race one, the magic cut-off was 48 points behind the lead. The difference between 1st and last place finishing spots. But as the contenders progress through The Chase, that number gets a bit smaller each race. But for anyone outside of 30 points down, I am not holding my breath!
Technically, one has to be within 48 points of the leader to see the light at the end of the tunnel, but realistically, for someone to be 48 points out, they would have to win, get bonus points, and the guy that was 48 points in front of them would have to falter and come in last. Seriously?
Going into Dover:
| 1 |
Tony Stewart |
2094 |
Leader |
| 2 |
Kevin Harvick |
2087 |
-7 |
| 3 |
Brad Keselowski |
2083 |
-11 |
| 4 |
Carl Edwards |
2080 |
-14 |
| 5 |
Jeff Gordon |
2071 |
-23 |
| 6 |
Kyle Busch |
2068 |
-26 |
| 7 |
Matt Kenseth |
2068 |
-26 |
| 8 |
Dale Earnhardt Jr. |
2068 |
-26 |
| 9 |
Kurt Busch |
2066 |
-28 |
| 10 |
Jimmie Johnson |
2065 |
-29 |
| 11 |
Ryan Newman |
2060 |
-34 |
| 12 |
Denny Hamlin |
2028 |
-66 |
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I love Dover and the NASCAR races held there. It’s still a traditional paperclip shape, and it’s still in the configuration it’s been in with banking and such, for as long as I remember it. That makes it a unique entity in and of itself.
With the upcoming AAA 400, here’s what we can expect for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series weekend TV schedule at Dover:
NASCAR TV SCHEDULE
| Friday 9/30 Practice on ESPN2 |
2:30 PM ET |
| Saturday 10/1 Qualifying on Speed |
1:30 PM ET |
| Sunday 10/2 AAA 400 live on ESPN |
2:00 PM ET |
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If you’re running a fantasy team, here are some super quick stats on the drivers and the event:
| Average Finish Loop Data |
|
| Carl Edwards |
6.8 |
| Jimmie Johnson |
7.2 |
| Greg Biffle |
7.6 |
| Mark Martin |
8.4 |
| Jeff Burton |
8.5 |
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Do You Really Think There Aren’t NASCAR Team Orders?
An NBaP Opinion piece:
Back at Richmond, there seemed to be a questionable scenario where one driver seemed to be in cahoots with other drivers and spun his car during the NASCAR Sprint Cup event, bringing out a caution which gathered up the field and gave Kevin Harvick the shot he needed to win the race while he was trying to beat Jeff Gordon. And that other driver is, in a fashion, associate with Kevin Harvick’s team.
At first I wasn’t sure. But watching the video tapes of radio chatter that we were pounded with during last week’s rain delay, well, it sure does look fishy. And obviously, the driver forget his code for changing radio channels.
Now there’s an interesting perspective that when J.J. Yeley pushed Matt Kenseth around the track on the last lap at Chicago, that he was running under suggestions from a fellow Ford team.
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The Ugly of the Reality
To be honest, no matter how you cut it, no matter what really happens there’s bound to be things that take place between teams that are in some way, related teams. Considering there are really, it feels like, only four, five huge entities in the sport and where they’re not in a garage, they’re leasing engines or chassis to other teams.
Plus, I think we get caught up in the spin we are subjected to (That might be too harsh a term), where everyone is, more or less, super nice to the world outside the sport of NASCAR. It is a family oriented sport, is it not?
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