As the week led up to the New Hampshire, I was tooling around with some statistics thinking about the 2010 NASCAR Chase for the Sprint Cup play-offs. The numbers say I should be watching Kevin Harvick, Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon more closely than the other chasers. But let’s look at some of the stats I did dig up.
If I look at the historical performances of the Chase drivers, I looked at top-5′s for the different track types, including all races the drivers have competed in.
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For short tracks, Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin and Jeff Gordon led the pack.
For Intermediate tracks, Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson & Carl Edwards were the top 3 performers.
Though SuperSpeedways are more a crap shoot, Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin and Jeff Gordon led the pack there too.
But if you look at the performance from this year, we see that Kevin Harvick, Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon were the top 3 performers up until the commencement of the Chase.
Kevin Harvick was in the top-10 65% of the time and found himself in the top-5 spots over 42% of the time. In comparison, Jimmie Johnson was in the top-10 53% of the time versus Kevin’s 65% & Johnson pulled off top-5′s 38% of the time, versus Kevin’s 42%.
The stats behind the season don’t agree with historical statistics as far as Kevin Harvick is concerned. Kevin’s cranked it up this year.
The real question behind all the statistics are what are the mental states of the teams headed down the stretch of the last 10 races.
When I seriously competed in NASCAR fantasy leagues, I would crunch the numbers and have my list, but I waited until after the last practice of each race weekend to see what teams were doing in practice and weight my decisions with their place in the standings of the weekend and temper it with their spot in the driver points standings.
In nearly 90% of my races, my drafted drivers would qualify in the front 10 spots but I was always plagued with tire problems, $5 failing components and other cars deciding to have wrecks that dragged my fantasy picks into the fray.
My system was near flawless but it was on a race-by-race basis. Now, I’m trying to gauge a 10-race NASCAR playoff and I’m not that confident about it right now. 10 races is a lot of territory for any number of things to happen and half this lead pack are all strong threats.
If I were to look at the 2010 NASCAR Sprint Cup year, Harvick has great numbers. If the team believes in themselves and their opening practice rounds for most of the last 10 races don’t panic them, I see Harvick giving Jimmie Johnson the run for his money.
I may be making a mistake in this, but I’m focusing purely on the top 3 statistical drivers from the previous part of 2010. Kevin Harvick, Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon. Looking at this year’s previous results:
- Loudon: Johnson 1st, Gordon 4th, Harvick 5th [Updated 9/19/10: KH 5th, JG 6th, JJ 25th]
- Dover: Harvick finished 7th, Gordon 11th, Johnson 16th.
- Kansas: Their first visit. Mid sized track performances Gordon, Johnson & Harvick.
- Fontana: Johnson 1st, Harvick 2nd, Gordon 20th.
- Charlotte: Gordon 6th, Harvick 11th, Johnson 37th… not his fault.
- Martinsville: Gordon 3rd, Johnson 9th, Harvick 35th, 100 laps down.
- Talladega: Harvick 1st, Gordon 22nd, Johnson 31st (wreck)
- Texas: Johnson 2nd, Harvick 7th, Jeff Gordon 31st (accident)
- Phoneix: Gordon 2nd, Johnson 3rd, Harvick 13th
And then, there will be Homestead.
These guys mixed up throughout the year at the Chase tracks. If I toss out their worse finishing position, Harvick still led these 3 guys in average finishing stats, on the Chase tracks they’re headed to:
- Harvick: 6.6th
- Johnson: 9th
- Gordon: 9.7th
These stats were compiled in very different times of the year. Weather, open mindedness, not as much stress on the entire team as it is now.
But if I look at pure stats, I think it wil come down to Kevin Harvick and Jimmie Johnson facing off in tight quarters. This is a combination of this and last year’s stats.
If either one bobbles, Jeff Gordon could pull off his 5th title. Yes, I’ve ignored the other 9 drivers, who could all easily turn it on and bring the heat. Carl Edwards and Denny Hamlin have me keeping a keen eye behind these three contenders I’ve focused on. For now, I’m going with my statistical approach, tempered with emotional impact on the top three drivers that in my book, are the ones to keep an eye on for this NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Playoff, the 2010 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Chase for the Cup!
(Off course, as I wrote this, I’m watching Kevin Harvick’s team imploding at Loudon, at the halfway mark running in the middle of the field… eesh.)
{ 2 comments… read them below or add one }
Good article, Bruce. Your “in-depth” analysis is very insightful! We all know numbers never lie, right!!
LOL… no Leon, they never lie. But cheap $5 parts that break and tires that go poof and other things tend to make liars out of the numbers!!