Look at everyone who is contending for a berth in the Top 12 to compete for the Chase for the Cup. Is that nuts, or what?
Headed into Richmond International Raceway, we have a bunch of drivers looking at that magical bubble spot of 12th. 4 spots are locked up right now: Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson & Denny Hamlin. And we have 11 drivers looking with hungry eyes at the remaining 8 spots. And since no two items can occupy the same space, or so the laws of physics declare, we’re going to have some disappointed people at the end of Saturday night.
Not to mention the disappointment, but this is also one of those close quarter racing tracks that already get drivers feathers up in a ruffle!
11 drivers, 8 chase spots. This chart is based on points away from 12th.
| 1 | Tony Stewart | 3694 | Leader |
| 2 | Jeff Gordon | 3457 | -237 |
| 3 | Jimmie Johnson | 3404 | -290 |
| 4 | Denny Hamlin | 3296 | -398 |
| 5 | Carl Edwards | 3162 | 85 |
| 6 | Kasey Kahne | 3153 | 76 |
| 7 | Kurt Busch | 3152 | 75 |
| 8 | Juan Montoya | 3145 | 68 |
| 9 | Ryan Newman | 3138 | 61 |
| 10 | Mark Martin | 3126 | 49 |
| 11 | Greg Biffle | 3125 | 48 |
| 12 | Matt Kenseth | 3077 | 0 |
| CHASE FOR THE Sprint CUP – CURRENT CONTENDERS | |||
| 13 | Brian Vickers | 3057 | -20 |
| 14 | Kyle Busch | 3040 | -37 |
| 15 | David Reutimann | 2945 | -132 |
| 16 | Clint Bowyer | 2909 | -168 |
| 17 | Marcos Ambrose | 2733 | -344 |
Realistically, we’re looking at 10 potentials as 122 points separate Carl (Ow my foot) Edwards and Kyle (Chrome Horn) Busch.
The locked in guys already have some of the best stats at short tracks… so I expect to see them up front all night.
By the way, the following list is sorted by statistical performance at short tracks since 2004. (Disclaimer: Stats don’t know flat tires, bad moods and bent fenders!!!)
Mark Martin should be fine.
Kyle Busch is going to need to do what he does best, but the team has seemed to be off this year… not sure what’s up with that though I do expect him to be in the front of the pack Saturday night.
Clint Bowyer will probably run OK, but not get in. Sorry… I like the guy too!
Kurt Busch should probably hold his spot for a clinch.
The fight we’re probably going to see is going to be between Ryan Newman, Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, Greg Biffle and Kasey Kahne!
I think / hope Ryan Newman is a shoe in. With his team owner’s take and experience on short tracks (Tony Stewart) and Ryan being a wheel man, I think that combo will help push Ryan into the Chase.
Carl Edwards is going to need to just stay consistent and not let his injured foot interfere at this short track. No one in this contention is safe or guaranteed and that foot ain’t gonna help.
Kenseth has to stay on the wheel and off of debris to keep his spot. Biffle will need to perform better than his statistics show to retain his spot and needs to play it safely aggressive. LOL… how’s that for an approach to a race. Kahne needs to keep to the low line, and just not have a car that’s crap out of the hauler to keep his spot.
Traditionally, Juan Pablo Montoya has not done as well as the rest of the gang at short tracks, but his team has been on mark this year… he can be the apple that upsets the cart for sure. Yet…
Sadly, I don’t think Brian Vickers is a threat to bust into the bubble.
What I’ve cooked up, I think the real stress is going to be on Montoya. His stats say he’s going to fall out of the top-12 and Kyle Busch will break that top-12 threshold.
But then again, this is Saturday night short trackin’ and regardless of your statistics, you need to perform well enough to stay up in the front 1/2 of the pack and try to stay out of everyone’s way when they screw up. Face it, each driver, aside from tire, engine and component failure worries, also have 42 other large obstacles called cars and attitude to dodge. It’s time to get Zen boys and see the goal.
When you look at it all, I have to ask:
- Is this the most number of drivers contending for spots in this last pre-chase race ever?
- Is this a function of the Chase?
- Or is this a function 0f the COT.
- Could this be some combined creation of all of these perspectives?
I’m guessing that those who love to see parity are probably a bit more pleased this year with this kind of cotention. To be honest, anything can happen. The only thing I’m hoping for above all else, is that ESPN on ABC gives us decent statistical updates throughout the race and they don’t cut away with 30 to go for a badmitton game or a rerun of Lassie or something like that.
I’m not asking much, am I?
